Oct 292019

FOR THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 28, 2019

Some pundits prefer to ignore the fact that housing data is volatile month-to-month. So we saw talking heads wringing their hands over September New Home Sales, down 0.7%, and Existing Home Sales, off 2.2%.

Calmer souls reminded us to check the trends. New home sales are up 15.5% over a year ago, at a 701,000 unit annual rate–and they have fully reversed the decline in the 12-month sales average, now at a post-recession high. 

Existing Home Sales are up 3.9% versus a year ago, and both reports came off strong August gains. Not good that year-over-year inventories fell four months, but great that the median sale price of new homes is down 8.8% from a year ago.

This Week’s Forecast

 PENDING HOME SALES, INCOMES, GDP, JOBS GROW;
MANUFACTURING SLOWS; THE FED CUTS… The Pending Home Sales index of contracts signed on existing homes should report growth, along with Personal Income, Q3 GDP, and September Nonfarm Payrolls. The nationwide ISM Manufacturing index and the Midwest Chicago PMI 
are forecast to show factory activity slowing, but the Fed’s expected rate
cut could help.NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up
and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices
and higher loan rates.

Federal Reserve Watch

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