An improving economy is contributing to a gradual rebound in home prices across the country, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac’s 2012 Economic Outlook report, released Wednesday. But there is still a way to go in the road to recovery for the housing market, the report noted. 

“The housing market is showing some signs of shaking off the depression-like conditions that have plagued it for much of the past few years,” according to the report. “As if awakening from hibernation, housing starts and home sales moved to higher levels of activity.”

In fact, the signs have prompted Freddie Mac to revise its forecast upwards for home sales and originations. One economic contributor that’s helping to stabilize housing: The drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, its lowest level in three years, according to the report. 

“A variety of encouraging indicators suggest that the housing market may be feeling a nascent recovery … and more neighborhoods may see a stabilization in overall demand and housing values this spring,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. 

Median home sale prices are up, despite a slight drop in new and existing home sales, Freddie Mac reports. About a half of the increase in housing starts has been for construction of rental apartments in multi-unit buildings to meet the increasing demand, the report notes. New rental construction, at its current pace, is expected to reach its highest level since 2005. 

“Housing starts continue to run below net household formations [and will allow for absorption of existing vacant homes],” according to the report.

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The economists predict that the national average for home prices will stop falling by this year and a subsequent turnaround will occur. By next year, they project that home prices will begin to rise by 2 percent, and then get a larger boost of 3.5 percent by 2014. The economists also predict that housing starts will nearly double by next year.

They also foresee rental prices continuing to increase for all property types, ranging from 0.8 percent to 5 percent. 

The economists’ predictions were made on assumptions that the economy would continue to strengthen, including a larger drop in unemployment.  

“While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years,” says Patrick L. Phillips, ULI chief executive officer. “These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.” 

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A number of housing markets nationwide have been seeing modest increases in median list prices. In the last year alone, median national list prices ticked up 6.82 percent year over year in February, according to Realtor.com data of 146 metro markets. And a number of markets have seen increases in just one month by 3 or 4 percent.

The following are the eight metro areas that saw the highest median list price increases from January to February:

1. San Jose, Calif.

Month-over-month increase: 4.20 percent

Median list price: $468,888

2. Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va.-W.Va.

Month-over-month increase: 4.17 percent

Median list price: $384,950

3. Detroit

Month-over-month increase: 3.92 percent

Median list price: $84,900

4. Corpus Christi, Texas

Month-over-month increase: 3.89 percent

Median list price: $165,700

5. San Francisco

Month-over-month increase: 3.77 percent

Median list price: $611,700

6. Punta Gorda, Fla.

Month-over-month increase: 3.35 percent

Median list price: $185,000

7. Atlanta

Month-over-month increase: 3.27 percent

Median list price: $154,900

8. Oakland, Calif.

Month-over-month increase: 3.23 percent

Median list price: $320,000

And where have median list prices fallen the most in the last month? Iowa City, Iowa, where median list prices have declined 4.95 percent, and Toledo, Ohio, where list prices dropped 4.31 percent from January to February, according to Realtor.com data.

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The index, which represents contracts signed but not yet closed, jumped a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent from February to March, to 101.4. That’s the highest index level since April 2010, when the deadline for a federal homebuyer tax credit program loomed. The index was 111.3 then.

Pending sales were up 10.8 percent from the same time a year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

An index score of 100 is equal to the average level of sales contract activity in 2001, a robust year for home sales and the first year examined by the trade group. The index typically represents about 20 percent of all existing-home transactions. Contracts signed in March typically close one or two months later.

“First-quarter sales closings were the highest first-quarter sales in five years. The latest contract signing activity suggests the second quarter will be equally good,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a statement.

“The housing market has clearly turned the corner,” Yun said. “Rising sales are bringing down inventory and creating much more balanced conditions around the county, which means home prices will be rising in more areas as the year progresses.”

Regionally, the Northeast saw the biggest unadjusted year-over-year increase in pending sales: 18.4 percent. The region was one of two to see a slight monthly decline, sliding 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis to 78.2.

The other region experiencing a month-over-month decline was the Midwest, where the index dipped a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent to 93.3. Nonetheless, the Midwest experienced the second-biggest annual increase in pending sales: 14.7 percent on an unadjusted basis.

The index reached its highest level in the South: 114.1. That’s a 5.9 percent seasonally adjusted increase compared to February. On an unadjusted basis, pending sales were up 8.9 percent from a year ago.

In the West, pending sales rose 8.7 percent month to month, to 108, and 5.9 percent from the same time a year ago on an unadjusted basis.

In its latest monthly economic outlook, also out today, NAR upped its forecast for existing-home sales in 2012 slightly from last month, to 4.68 million — a nearly 10 percent increase from 2011. The trade group expects existing-home sales to rise an additional 1.5 percent in 2013, to 4.75 million.

NAR projects new-home sales will rise 31.6 percent in 2012, to 400,000, and increase a further 32.5 percent in 2013 to 530,000.

After falling 3.9 percent in 2011, NAR expects a 2 percent increase in the median price of existing-home sales in 2012, to $169,500. The association predicts a further 2.1 percent increase, to $173,100, in 2013.

Meanwhile, after rising 2 percent in 2011, NAR projects rents will rise 3.4 percent in 2012 and 3.8 percent in 2013. 

This year, NAR predicts the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage will be 4.2 percent, down from 4.7 percent in 2011. By 2013, the rate is expected to rise to 4.9 percent.

NAR expects this year’s national real gross domestic product to grow 2.4 percent, followed by 3.1 percent growth in 2013. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to average 8.2 percent this year and drop to 7.6 percent in 2013.

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Banks are agreeing to more short sales, and for the first time, short sale transactions are exceeding foreclosure deals, according to the most recent housing data from Lender Processing Services (LPS) Inc.

In January, short sales made up 23.9 percent of home purchases, according to LPS. Meanwhile, foreclosures made up 19.7 percent of sales.

Just one year prior, foreclosures made up the bulk at 24.9 percent of transactions while short sales made up 16.3 percent.

“It’s a fairly recent phenomenon that short sales have been increasing,” Jonathon Weiner, a vice president with LPS, told Bloomberg News.

So why are banks getting more agreeable to short sales? Banks are realizing that short sale transactions usually sell for higher prices than foreclosures. In fact, foreclosed homes tend to sell for 29 percent less, on average, than comparable non-distressed properties. Short sales tend to sell at a 23 percent discount, according to Lending Processing Services data from January.

Banks and government agencies in recent weeks have taken steps to speed up the short sale process, setting new timelines for how long mortgage servicers have to respond to short sales offers. Also, some banks, such as Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, are even offering some home owners cash incentives — up to $35,000 — if they agree to do a short sale instead of let the home fall into foreclosure.

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More Americans are showing a preference for living closer into the city than the outer suburbs, according to newly released U.S. Census data. The annual rate of growth in American cities and surrounding urban areas recently surpassed exurbs for the first time in two decades.

Residential exurbs on the edge of metro areas once were a popular place for city dwellers to flock for bigger and more affordable housing options, but the trend is reversing.

“The heyday of exurbs may well be behind us,” Robert J. Shiller, a Yale University economist, told the Associated Press.

Rising gas prices are certainly one factor behind the shift, economists note, but demographic changes are also playing a part. More young singles are delaying marriage and having children, and thus find they don’t need the extra roominess the exurbs tend to offer in housing. Older populations are also showing greater preferences for living in walkable urban centers.

Many outer suburbs that had been experiencing booming growth just a few years ago are now seeing growth stall. In fact, 99 of the 100 fastest-growing exurbs and outer suburbs of 2006 experienced small or no growth at all in 2011, according to Census data. (Spotsylvania County, Va., south of the Washington, D.C., metro area, was the only exception.)

“The sting of this experience may very well put the damper on the long-held view among young families and new immigrants that building a home in the outer suburbs is a quick way to achieve the American dream,” William H. Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer, told the Associated Press

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As an inspector for the Waypoint Real Estate Group, Mr. Hladik takes about 20 minutes to walk through each home, noting worn kitchen cabinets or missing roof tiles. The blistering pace is necessary to keep up with Waypoint’s appetite: the company, which has bought about 1,200 homes since 2008 — and is now buying five to seven a day — is an early entrant in a business that some deep-pocketed investors are betting is poised to explode.

With home prices down more than a third from their peak and the market swamped with foreclosures, large investors are salivating at the opportunity to buy perhaps thousands of homes at deep discounts and fill them with tenants. Nobody has ever tried this on such a large scale, and critics worry these new investors could face big challenges managing large portfolios of dispersed rental houses. Typically, landlords tend to be individuals or small firms that own just a handful of homes.

But the new investors believe the rental income can deliver returns well above those offered by Treasury securities or stock dividends. At the same time, economists say, they could help areas hardest hit by the housing crash reach a bottom of the market.

This year, Waypoint signed a $400 million deal with GI Partners, a private equity firm in Silicon Valley. Gary Beasley, Waypoint’s managing director, says the company plans to buy 10,000 to 15,000 more homes by the end of next year. Other large private equity investors — including Colony Capital, GTIS Partners and Oaktree Capital Management, in partnership with the Carrington Holding Company — have committed millions to this new market, and Lewis Ranieri, often called the inventor of the mortgage bond, is considering it, too.

In February, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, announced that it would sell about 2,500 homes in a pilot program in eight metropolitan areas, including Atlanta, Chicago and Los Angeles.

And Bank of America said in late March that it would begin testing a plan to allow homeowners facing foreclosure the chance to rent back their homes and wipe out their mortgage debt. Eventually, the bank said, it could sell the houses to investors.

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The Federal Housing Administration announced that starting April 1 it will not insure mortgages to borrowers who have an ongoing credit dispute of $1,000 or more on their file. 

To be considered for an FHA-backed loan, borrowers will either have to pay the remaining balance on the credit dispute or enter into a payment plan, making at least three payments on it. Any payment plans will need to be documented and submitted to FHA, which will then figure it into the debt-to-income ratio for the new mortgage. 

FHA’s new rule does not include disputed credit accounts from more than two years ago or any related to reported identity theft.

Still, the new rule has some in the housing industry worried that it’s going to keep more potential home buyers from securing a mortgage.

“We expect this revision will certainly kick some buyers out of the marketplace, and we’re in ongoing efforts to quantify how extreme the impact will be,” Lisa Jackson, senior vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told HousingWire.

Jeremy Radack, a real estate attorney in Houston who assists with financing, estimated FHA originations may be reduced by 33 percent to 50 percent this year due to the new rule. 

FHA says the rule is aimed at protecting the FHA’s emergency fund, which has fallen below the mandated amount Congress requires. 

“We found that many borrowers with mortgage payment delinquencies had prior credit deficiencies including unpaid collections and unresolved disputed accounts prior to the approval of their loan,” the spokesman said. “This change was made to eliminate this layer of risk to FHA-insured loans and help protect our insurance fund.”

Also in reimbursing the emergency fund*, FHA announced it would raise its insurance premiums starting April 1 too.

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